Thursday, December 4, 2008

Holes in Medical Statistics Part 1: Understanding the P value through Poker

Is there a misunderstanding about the use and interpretation of P values and hypothesis testing? An excellent set of articles written by SN Goodman makes this case. This is the first in a series of blog entries to help illustrate the points in these papers.

To help clarify the concept of the P value, I will start with a contrived poker example:

Let's say you're in Las Vegas hoping for a little enjoyment and to win some cash. You enter one of the seedier downtown casinos and find a new game. It's called "Huslyall". The dealer is rather unkempt, wears an eyepatch and has a hook replacing his left hand.

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3 comments:

  1. Mike just an outstanding post...I'm doing some research right now and actually trying to learn about statistics and the misinterpretation of data is so rampant.

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  2. Dr. Laidlaw.
    That was an excellent lession in the premise of P values.
    It appears that all studies should first start justifying the null hypothesis first before trying to measure the effect.

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  3. Thanks very much for your feedback guys. Glad you liked it. I've spent a couple of weeks going over this issue in depth. Hopefully the next few posts will be helpful as well.

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